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Bond Valuation I.

What’s a bond really worth?

Use DCF to discount cash flows and determine bond value.

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Introduction to Bond Valuation

Bonds are debt instruments providing fixed income over a specified period. Before investing, it's crucial to determine a bond's true value. 

Luna, a new investor, and this lesson’s hero, uses the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate bonds. 

DCF calculates the present value of all expected future cash flows, including coupon payments and face value at maturity. 

By discounting these cash flows to today's terms, Luna can assess if a bond is priced appropriately.

Overview of Discounted Cash Flow Method 

The time value of money states that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future due to its earning potential. 

This is central to bond valuation. 

The Discounted Cash Flow method applies this concept by calculating the present value of all expected future cash flows, including coupon payments and the face value at maturity. 

By discounting these payments to their present value, DCF reveals a bond’s true worth today, allowing investors to assess if its price aligns with its future income potential.

The DCF Formula for Bond Valuation 

The DCF formula calculates a bond’s value by summing the present values of each expected cash flow. 

For a bond, this includes all coupon payments and the face value at maturity. The formula is: 

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Where “r” is the discount rate, “t” is each period, and “n” is the total number of periods until maturity. Each cash flow is discounted separately to account for the time value of money, yielding the bond’s current value.

Components of Bond Cash Flows 

Bonds typically provide two types of cash flow. 

Coupon payments are interest payments made regularly, often semi-annually or annually, based on the bond's coupon rate. 

The face value, or par value, is the amount repaid to the investor when the bond matures. 

Understanding these cash flows is crucial for valuation, as the timing and amount of each payment affect the bond's present value. 

Different bond types may have varying cash flow patterns, influencing their valuation.

Selecting the Appropriate Discount Rate 

The discount rate is a critical component in bond valuation, reflecting an investor's required rate of return. 

Factors influencing the discount rate include current market interest rates, the bond issuer's credit risk, and prevailing economic conditions. 

A higher discount rate is used for riskier bonds to compensate for increased default risk. 

Aligning the discount rate with the bond's risk profile ensures that the present value of future cash flows accurately reflects the bond's actual value.

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