ADP Report

ADP Reports 42,000 Private Jobs Added in October

Private-sector hiring picked up slightly in October, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report, which showed a gain of 42,000 jobs—the first increase since July. The uptick marks a modest rebound but remains well below early-year hiring levels. 

Growth was concentrated in education and health services (+26,000) and trade, transportation, and utilities (+47,000), while professional services (-15,000) and leisure and hospitality (-6,000) continued to shed jobs. 

Large firms drove the rebound, adding 73,000 jobs, while small and mid-sized businesses cut staff. Regionally, the West (+40,000) led job creation, with losses in the Northeast (-12,000) offsetting gains elsewhere.

Pay Growth Flat, Signaling Balanced Labor Market 

Annual pay growth held steady in October, rising 4.5% for job-stayers and 6.7% for job-changers, suggesting wage pressures remain contained. That marks more than a year of flat pay growth, consistent with a labor market where supply and demand are largely balanced. 

By industry, the financial sector (+5.2%) and manufacturing (+4.8%) posted the strongest wage gains among job-stayers, while small firms (fewer than 20 employees) saw the weakest pay growth at 2.5%.

Hiring Stabilizes, but Momentum Still Soft 

The report points to a cool but steady labor market heading into year-end. After months of weak job creation, October’s modest rebound suggests employers are cautious but not cutting deeply. 

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said the results reflect a “balanced” job market, with slower hiring offset by stable wages. That equilibrium may give the Federal Reserve more room to hold rates steady as inflation continues to ease.

Shutdown Clouds Labor Outlook 

With the federal government still partially shut down, October’s ADP report may be the only major labor reading available until agencies reopen. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which produces the official jobs report, has paused data collection during the funding lapse. 

This limits visibility for policymakers and investors, making the ADP’s private-sector data even more influential in shaping near-term expectations. Analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty could weigh on hiring, especially among small firms and contractors tied to federal spending.

Markets Nod to Jobs Rebound, but Growth Worries Linger 

Markets responded mildly to October’s ADP report showing a 42,000-job gain in the private sector, signaling a modest rebound after two months of weak hiring. The uptick was led by large firms and education, health, and trade sectors, giving investors cautious optimism about underlying labor resilience. Equity indexes opened slightly higher, while bond yields were mostly unchanged as traders weighed soft hiring against steady wage growth.