Pending Sales

Holiday Cheer Returns to the Housing Market

In November, contracts on existing homes rose 3.3% month over month (m/m) and 2.6% year over year (y/y), according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). That’s not just a noisy bounce: after adjusting for seasonality, NAR notes this is the strongest reading of the year and the best in nearly three years, pointing to real momentum rather than a one-off blip.

Gains Across All Four Regions Reflect Broad-Based Recovery

The most encouraging part is how broad-based the gains were:

• Northeast: +1.8% m/m, +1.8% y/y
• Midwest: +1.3% m/m, +2.2% y/y
• South: +2.4% m/m, +3.3% y/y
• West: a standout +9.2% m/m, +2.4% y/y

The West has been one of the hardest-hit regions during the rate shock, so a near double-digit monthly gain suggests buyers are re-engaging as prices and mortgage rates become slightly more manageable.

Confidence Grows Among Buyers and Sellers

Under the surface, sentiment is shifting too. NAR’s Confidence Index shows 22% of Realtors expect stronger buyer traffic over the next three months (up from 17% in October), and 18% expect more seller traffic (up from 16%). Those are still minority shares, and both are below last year’s levels, but the direction has turned more positive.

Affordability and Inventory Unlock Pent-Up Demand

NAR’s chief economist points to better affordability: mortgage rates have pulled back from their peaks, and wage growth has been running ahead of home-price gains in many markets. Add in slightly more inventory than a year ago, and more buyers are at least willing to “test the market” by writing offers.

It’s worth remembering that pending home sales are based on signed contracts, not closed deals. The Pending Home Sales Index is designed as a leading indicator—today’s contracts usually show up as completed sales one to two months later, though financing snags, appraisal issues, or inspection problems can still derail some transactions.

Momentum Builds into Year-End

Still, a simultaneous month-over-month and year-over-year rise across all four regions is a clear signal that housing is moving from “frozen” toward “thawing.” For agents, lenders, and anyone watching the broader economy, November’s report suggests that lower rates and gradual income gains are starting to unlock at least some of the pent-up demand that has been sidelined for much of the past two years.