Cancer Gamble

Vaccine Fever on Wall Street

Remember Moderna, the Covid-jab darling from 2021-2022? Well, the American biotech is back with some excellent news. Moderna shares skyrocketed 177% on Wednesday after it announced positive initial results from a late-stage skin cancer vaccine trial.

This is the first successful phase 3 trial for an mRNA cancer vaccine. Messenger RNA technology teaches your cells how to fight illnesses like Covid or, in this case, melanoma. In this experimental therapy, each vaccine would be custom-made for specific tumors, addressing unique mutations.

The trial is not yet finished and will continue to assess other outcomes, including how much the treatment improves survival among melanoma patients.

Betting on a Breakthrough

Wall Street doesn't hand out +170% daily gains very often. Moderna’s market cap reached nearly $70 billion, although it’s still a far cry from its pandemic peak of around $200 billion.

Moderna has pursued personalized cancer vaccines for years with its larger pharma partner Merck — which was rewarded with a 13% share price boost on Wednesday. The treatment combines Merck's cancer drug Keytruda with a vaccine designed for each patient individually.

The reason why investors and patients were so elated is that the technology has potential to be applied across a range of cancers. Moderna and Merck are running trials on lung, bladder, and kidney tumors, among others. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel called the trial a “big moment for medicine, a big moment for patients.”

Covid Hero's Rise, Fall, and Rise

Few companies have experienced swings quite like Moderna. Its Spikevax was only the second-ever mRNA vaccine released to the public, narrowly defeated by another Covid jab by Pfizer and BioNTech. Investors piled in before the vaccine was even out in the public. The stock soared to an all-time high of $484 in 2021.

But as the world moved on from the pandemic, demand for Covid vaccines collapsed. They are now routinely offered only to the most vulnerable. There’s also a range of competing jabs around.

Last year, Moderna was the most-shorted stock in the S&P 500. That means investors were betting on the share price to fall. Even now, the shares remain far below their pandemic peak. But if the initial findings are confirmed in the final results, Moderna may rejoin the leagues of big pharma again.

Biotech’s High‑Risk Cycle

Moderna’s share price rollercoaster shows how the healthcare sector hinges on scientific breakthroughs. This is particularly true for biotech companies that deal with the most experimental side of medicine. Many biotech firms operate at a loss for years, and some fold without a single product reaching the market.

Key factors to look out for:

• The “bio” in biotech: Using living cells and organisms is more difficult than chemical engineering.
• Pioneering industry: One success can create an entirely new market.
• Clinical trials: Many promising drugs fail in late‑stage testing.
• Patents: Once they expire, traditional pharma faces a patent cliff. Biological drugs are more difficult to replicate, so revenue decline tends to be slower.
• Regulatory approvals: Strict safety and efficacy reviews, particularly for new treatment types.