US Data Drop

Job Openings Hold at 6.9 Million

January’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report reads like a labor market that’s still moving, just not sprinting. Job openings were little changed at 6.9 million, and the openings rate held at 4.2%.

Think of job openings as the economy’s “Now Hiring” signs. When they’re high, employers are hungry. When they drift lower, businesses are saying, “We’re good for now.”

One bright spot inside the steady headline: openings rose in finance and insurance (+184,000).

Quits Hold Steady and Layoffs Don’t Spike

The “mood indicator” inside JOLTS stayed calm. Quits were little changed at 3.1 million, and the quits rate held at 2.0%.

This matters because quits are voluntary. A higher quits rate usually means workers feel confident they can land something better. While a lower quits rate can signal people are sticking closer to home base.

Layoffs and discharges were also steady at 1.6 million (rate 1.0%), which suggests employers aren’t hitting the panic button.

Small-but-real footnote: this release included annual revisions and seasonal updates, meaning older history can shift as well. Translation: don’t fall in love with any single month’s tiny move.

Consumers Kept the Economy Moving in January

Personal income rose 0.4%, disposable income jumped 0.9%, and spending Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) increased 0.4%. But here’s the plot twist: services spending continues to rise, while goods spending fell.

That matters because consumer spending is the heavyweight in the US economy, so shifts in where money goes can ripple into corporate revenues and earnings.

On inflation, prices rose 0.3% m/m on headline PCE, while core PCE rose 0.4% m/m. Core matters because it’s the Fed’s preferred inflation lens, and the Fed’s long-run target is built around it.

GDP Cooled and the Fed Debate Stays Spicy

The second estimate of Q4 GDP came in softer than first reported 0.7% Seasonally adjusted Auunal Rate, which tells you the economy ended 2025 with less momentum than initially thought.

But zoom out and the three reports line up into one clean storyline:

• Employers aren’t dramatically ramping up demand for labor (openings steady).
• Workers aren’t acting like it’s a “Great Resignation” moment (quits steady).
• Consumers are still spending, especially on services, but inflation is still sticky enough (core PCE) to keep rate expectations sensitive.

In other words: no recession sirens, no victory lap. Just an economy still moving forward… with a that Fed keeps asking, “Are we there yet?”