US Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Sentiment held at 55.0 in October, virtually unchanged from 55.1 in September and well below 70.5 a year earlier. The data suggests consumers remain cautious, with few signs of improving confidence.  

Most households see the economy as steady but strained, weighed down by persistent inflation and concerns over future growth.

The Consumer Expectations Index slipped to 51.2 from 51.7, signaling softer views about future income and business conditions.  

Respondents expressed limited optimism for the year ahead, particularly around inflation and employment prospects. Interviews showed few expect meaningful improvement soon.

Short-term inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%, while long-term expectations stayed at 3.7%.  

Both remain higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal and indicate inflation is still top of mind for consumers, though concerns have stabilized compared with earlier this year.

Overall, consumer sentiment is treading water. People see little change in the economy’s direction and remain focused on pocketbook issues like high prices and job security.  

So far, the federal government shutdown appears to have had minimal impact on how consumers view the economy.