Midterms Guide

Who Gets to Steer the US

Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3, with control of Congress at stake. All 435 House of Representatives seats are being contested, alongside 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats.

Republicans currently hold both chambers, in addition to the presidency. Democrats need a net four House seats and four Senate seats to win both houses. If this happens, it would severely limit President Donald Trump’s power.  

The fiercest Senate fights are stretching across Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa in the latest polling. Congress controls spending, writes laws, and investigates companies.

Bull Rally vs. Cost of Living

On paper, the US economy has some serious muscle. Unemployment stood at just 4.2% in September, while the economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate last quarter. Business investment jumped 12.7%. S&P 500 stock index hit a record just one month ago.

But American voters are unimpressed. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, gasoline and diesel prices are at all-time highs, graduates are struggling to land jobs, and 30-year mortgage rates have topped 7%.

An October AP-NORC poll found 85% of voters considered the economy one of the most important election issues, while 84% said the same about the cost of living.

Wall Street Watches the Voters

Election night may deliver some market jitters but legislation, Federal Reserve policy, trade, and geopolitics have a more lasting impact. Regardless, some sectors are keenly invested in the results:

• Democrats could push tougher AI oversight and make data centers bear more of their power-grid costs.
• US defense stocks rallied earlier but have tumbled in recent months. An exchange-traded fund tracking the industry has lost 17% since August’s peak, while Republican chances to take the senate have dropped from 52% to 26%, according to prediction markets platform Kalshi.
• Crypto industry has done well under Republican controlled Congress and Trump’s presidency. Democrats could introduce more regulation.
• Federal spending decisions directly the money flowing to the healthcare industry.

Billionaires Pick a Side

This election is set to be the most expensive one ever conducted in the US. As spending is likely to hit $11.6 billion, according to industry tracker AdImpact, surpassing $11.2 billion spent in 2024 presidential election.

And the money is concentrated: The 50 largest donors and donor groups had contributed about $2.8 billion by late October, roughly 60% from Republican-aligned sources.

SpaceX and Tesla chief Elon Musk towers over everyone, with $446 million in contributions to prop up Republicans. Several crypto and AI billionaires are among the top donors, likely hoping for favorable regulation.