BHP's Copper Bet

BHP Breaks Records With New Focus

Copper has officially become BHP’s new earnings engine. For the first time, copper made up 51% of the Australian mining giant’s operating profits, surpassing iron ore.

Copper prices have jumped nearly 50% since the start of 2025 and are currently hovering around $13,000/ton, after peaking at a record of $14,500 in January.

All this pushed BHP’s half‑year profit up 22% to $6.2 billion, topping forecasts — with the dividend also beating expectations. Investors cheered: the stock climbed as much as 7% to an all-time high.

Miners Propping Up the AI Boom

BHP’s focus is shifting toward copper largely because of the AI boom, which drives up data center and energy investments. Other mining companies have also seen a bump.

AI is not just software. It leaves a massive physical footprint, with data centers requiring electricity, cooling, and high‑capacity wiring.

Copper is essential for all of it. As AI adoption accelerates, so does the need for copper‑heavy infrastructure. BHP predicts copper demand in data centers will grow sixfold from current levels by 2050, accounting for about 6-7% of the overall copper use.

Why Copper Keeps Climbing

Many reasons are pushing up copper prices:

• AI data centers: heavy wiring + power systems.
• Energy transition: EVs, solar, wind all need copper.
• Grid upgrades: modern networks require more conductivity.
• Urbanization: Emerging countries building rapidly to keep up with population growth.
• Slow supply growth: few new mines coming online.

Analysts expect global copper demand to rise 50% by 2040, driven by electrification and digital infrastructure. With supply tight and demand accelerating, copper prices matter to the entire global economy.

A Step Back From Mega‑Deals

BHP is doubling down on organic copper growth and taking a pause from M&A drama.

Earlier this year, its main rival, Rio Tinto, tried to gain a steadier foothold in copper by acquiring Glencore. The talks failed (again). BHP monitored the $200 billion mega-merger talks but stayed on the sidelines, saying Glencore wasn’t a good strategic fit. This follows BHP’s abandoned $49 billion approach for Anglo American last year.

Instead of buying, BHP commits to building. It’s laid out multi-year plans to invest $18 billion in Argentina to develop projects on copper, gold, and silver — all of which have seen huge price surges recently.

Iron Ore Loses Its Shine

Iron ore remains important for BHP as the key ingredient to steel. But the growing supply and inflated production costs are hurting. Iron prices recently hit a seven‑month low, and unit costs rose 7%. Negotiations with China over supply terms remain “tough,” adding uncertainty.

With iron ore earnings slipping and copper demand accelerating, BHP’s pivot looks increasingly strategic. The world is electrifying fast, and copper is the metal carrying that current.